Entry/Exit Tool - An Analysis of Forecast Consistancy
A powerful tool which breaks down a set of annual forecasts into the underlying monthly sales. This highlights any possible inconsistencies in the forecast figures which may not be apparent at the annual level. For a new product forecast, the implications of delaying launch by a number of months can be modelled easily and understood.
The Entry/Exit Analysis is based on the simple premise that sales in one year are determined in large part by sales in the previous year. It also assumes the rate of growth (or decline) of a product does not normally change dramatically at a year end. In short, the sales of a product as it exits a year (December) is a major determinant of how sales will start the following year (January, the entry month)
This set of figures may not be wrong But they're a lot less attractive than these
Key Features
| Feature | Benefit |
| Breaks a set of annual forecasts into monthly buckets | Clearer view of forecast continuity |
| Rapid, highly intuitive, re-modelling of sales growth curves and data and comparison with starting position | Attractive to use Greatly aids insight into relationship between annual and monthly sales Credible output |
| Identifies possible inconsistencies | Helps to produce consistent forecasts |
| Easily re-forecast with alternative launch dates | Ease of use means that this thankless task will be done (no excuse for not doing it) Important likely scenarios will be considered which in turn leads to better investment decisions and better use of resources |
| Allows easy evaluation of cost of delay | Helps to determine prioritiesHelps to understand the implications of alternative strategies |